Swiss Re sees $320b insured loss risk in 2026

Global AI infrastructure spending could exceed $6t by 2030 and create $91b in premiums.

Swiss Re has outlined a growing demand for insurance protection ahead of the annual Rendez-Vous de Septembre meeting, driven by expanding natural hazards, major technology investments, and rising liability costs.

According to Swiss Re modelling, a peak loss scenario in 2026 could trigger around $320b (£245b) in insured losses. 

Annual insured natural catastrophe losses continue to grow by 5% to 7% each year, pushed up by higher asset values and shifting weather patterns. 

The reinsurer noted that a cluster of major hurricanes, similar to the combined impact of Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017, can generate over $120b in losses without a single event breaking overall records.

Wildfires have also emerged as the fastest-growing weather hazard globally. Insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by 8% to 11% annually in recent decades as property development expands into high-risk areas.

Investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure are creating new demand for coverage. Cumulative spending on data centres is expected to pass $6 trillion by 2030, generating an estimated $91b in global insurance premiums by the end of the decade. 

However, these facilities carry significant exposure: around 40% of US data centre capacity is located in areas facing significant to very high tornado risks. Complex supply chain dependencies and high asset values further increase potential financial losses.

In commercial liability, claims costs remain high. Total US commercial liability losses reached $174b in 2025, surpassing that year's global natural catastrophe losses of $120b. 

Swiss Re warned that ongoing litigation trends and elevated court verdicts continue to create uncertainty around future claims.

Geopolitical tensions are further affecting the market by disrupting energy, commodity, and supply chain networks. 

These disruptions contribute to inflation, which directly increases the cost of repairs, property replacement, and final claim payouts across the sector.