AIA China poised for double-digit new business growth through 2030

New geographies will be its core growth engines, says UOB Kay Hian.

AIA China could deliver value of new business (VONB) growth in the high-teens between 2025 to 2030, according to estimates by UOB Kay Hian.

The insurer is enacting an “ambitious” growth strategy in mainland China, with new geographies being the core growth engines. Five developing regions— Hebei, Tianjin, Sichuan, Henan, and Hunan) reported 35% year-on-year (YoY) VONB growth.

The four regions it launched in this year— Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang— saw rapid expansion. The VONB contribution from new geographies to AIA China increased to 11% from 8% in H1 2025.

“In other words, the four regions launched this year also ramped up rapidly, supported by the rapid expansion of both the agency force and bancassurance channels, and a mass affluent customer base,” said UOBKH analyst Kenny Lim Yong Hui.

Lim and UOBKH believe that AIA can sustain its solid sales growth in China even after the industry-wide surge in August 2025 ahead of pricing rate cuts.

“Management highlighted that protection products grew 20% YoY, supported by recovering demand for critical illness (CI) products despite a softer consumption environment,” Lim wrote.

Another positive indicator for the near-term sales outlook is the strong new agent recruitment, with a 17% YoY growth in Q3 2025 alone.

“Additionally, AIA is benefitting from its ongoing geographic expansion, which makes it distinct from other competitors,” Lim said.