AIA’s value of new business slated for 23% growth for Q4 2024

But challenges in Malaysia and Thailand could weigh on performance.

AIA Group is expected to report a 23% year-on-year (YoY) growth in its value of new business (VONB) for the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024), driven by a rebound in China and strong sales in Hong Kong and Singapore, according to UOB KayHian. 

The company will release its full-year results in mid-March. However, challenges in Malaysia and Thailand could weigh on performance due to softer demand following medical product repricing.  

AIA China is set to post double-digit VONB growth in the fourth quarter as it recovers from a weaker base and sales disruptions in the previous quarter caused by the early withdrawal of some products ahead of industry-wide repricing. 

Management noted that pre-sales for 2025 products began in early November through the agency channel. Increased agent productivity and a higher mix of participating products are expected to support growth.  

AIA's geographical expansion in China remains on track. The company received four new licenses from local bureaus in the fourth quarter and expects to take six months to complete preparations before securing final regulatory approvals.

Each new branch will start with 300 agents, with plans to expand to 1,000 within two years. Branches established between 2019 and 2023 contributed 5% of AIA China’s agency VONB in the first nine months of 2024, and new branches are expected to reach this milestone more quickly as they operate without pandemic-related disruptions.

AIA also aims to expand into four to five additional provinces.  

In Hong Kong, VONB growth is expected to remain strong, with domestic sales outpacing the Mainland China Visitor (MCV) segment. 

Demand from new immigrants continues to support growth in the onshore business, whilst the MCV segment may moderate due to weaker performance in the broker channel, partially offset by stronger agency sales. 

In Singapore, AIA launched a unit-linked long-term savings product under the AIA Regional Funds Platform to cater to affluent customers, positioning it to sustain solid VONB growth.  

Despite declining bond yields in China, AIA is expected to be more resilient than its peers due to its stronger asset-liability management.