Surety market to grow 5% annually through 2030

Markets like Australia and South Korea are expected to remain stable.

The global surety market is projected to maintain an annual growth rate of around 5% through 2025 and over the next five years, potentially reaching a total market size of $30b by 2030, according to Aon’s 2025 Global Construction Insurance and Surety Market Report.

Growth will be uneven across regions, with the US, parts of Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Latin America expected to lead, particularly in sectors such as transportation, energy, power and renewables, water, and wastewater.

In APAC, established markets like Australia and South Korea are expected to remain stable, whilst significant growth is anticipated in China and India. 

This expansion is driven by ongoing economic development and infrastructure investment needs estimated at $1.7t annually through 2030. 

In the short term, India is expected to see strong demand for surety products, supported by regulatory changes.

Surety is also gaining traction as an alternative to bank guarantees, especially in the banking and energy sectors.

Its off-balance-sheet structure and cost advantages make it attractive to financial institutions operating under capital constraints. 

Banks are increasingly looking to surety to support guarantee requirements, particularly in export-related energy projects.

However, the risk outlook for 2025 remains cautious, especially in the residential construction sector. 

Markets such as Australia, Hong Kong, and Singapore have experienced elevated claims activity, prompting more selective underwriting and heightened focus on credit quality and performance risk. 

Whilst pricing has remained flat across most of Asia, rates have increased in Australia, with case-specific supply and demand dynamics continuing to influence pricing trends. Investment-grade entities are likely to see more favourable terms.

Surety capacity is expected to hold steady in Australia and expand across the rest of Asia, particularly for construction and commercial bond guarantees. 

Capacity constraints, where they occur, are typically limited to specific geographies or transactions due to regulatory or concentration risks.