China Life boosts NBV outlook with stronger gains expected in 2026

CGS International projects a 44% net profit rise.

China Life’s outlook is drawing attention as analysts anticipate further upgrades to market forecasts for new business value (NBV) and profit over the next two years, according to CGS International’s research note.

Research indicates that current consensus numbers for FY 2025 to FY 2027 remain too conservative, and that continued revisions could support a re-rating of the stock, particularly as NBV trends strengthen.

China Life posted 41.8% year-on-year NBV growth for the first nine months of 2025 on a like-for-like basis, with third-quarter growth estimated at more than 85%.

Analysts say only a single month of lower guaranteed rates was reflected in the third quarter, and that the full-quarter effect in the fourth quarter is likely to lift NBV margins further.

Forecasts for FY 2025 net profit are also rising. CGS International’s projection sits 44% higher than Bloomberg consensus, due mainly to stronger investment income following solid market performance in 2025. 

China Life’s investment income for the first nine months of the year increased 61% year-on-year, and third-quarter investment income rose more than fourfold. 

A potential profit alert in January 2026, consistent with the company’s historical practice, may trigger another round of upgrades.

Looking ahead, analysts highlight several factors that could reinforce the company’s direction. An acceleration in premium growth, a more supportive interest-rate environment and any rebound in China’s A-share market would likely feed into investment returns. 

Deposit rate cuts may also help sustain demand for savings-type insurance products.

Risks remain, including competition in savings and health insurance products and the impact of prolonged low bond yields on long-term profitability. 

Even so, expectations for stronger NBV, improving margins and potential consensus upgrades continue to shape the outlook for China Life going into 2026.