Asia flood risk rises as 27 storms threaten coasts

Forecasters expect 18 typhoons and 11 intense systems in 2026.

Coastal areas across Asia are facing a heightened risk of flooding ahead of what forecasters predict will be the most active northwest Pacific typhoon season in over a decade.

According to an S&P Global insight, an early May forecast by University College London’s Tropical Storm Risk predicts 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons, and 11 intense typhoons for 2026. 

This would make it the most active season since 2015, with tropical activity expected to be about 25% above the 30-year average.

The increased activity is driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. 

Whilst these conditions are expected to bring slightly fewer North Atlantic hurricanes than usual, they make typhoon formation more likely in the northwest Pacific, putting Japan, eastern China, and Korea at higher risk. 

Steve Tunstall, general secretary of the Pan-Asia Risk and Insurance Management Association (PARIMA), noted that some reports suggest this El Niño could be the strongest on record.

The forecast follows a destructive previous year. In 2025, a series of storms hit Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka in rapid succession, causing more than $11b in economic damage. 

In Sri Lanka, Cyclone Ditwah alone caused $4b in losses, making it the costliest natural disaster in the country’s history.

Despite these severe localised impacts, global insured losses from floods in 2025 were well below average at $3.4b, compared to the five-year average of $15.4b, according to a Swiss Re Institute report. 

However, Swiss Re noted that Asia still experiences the highest annual flood-loss growth rate globally at 12%, driven by heavily urbanised areas around large river systems and monsoon seasons.