Global protection gap narrows to 36%, lowest Q1 figure since 1990

Earthquakes in Myanmar and China were drivers of insured losses from disasters.

Global insured losses from natural disasters in the first quarter of 2025 are forecast to exceed $53b, according to Aon’s Q1 Global Catastrophe Recap.

This figure is significantly higher than the 21st-century Q1 average of $17b and marks the second-highest first-quarter total on record, following Q1 2011.

The largest driver of insured losses was the California wildfires, which accounted for approximately $38b, or 71% of the total. 

Severe convective storms across the US and earthquakes in Myanmar and China also contributed to the figures.

The insurance protection gap — the percentage of economic losses not covered by insurance — narrowed to 36% in Q1 2025, the lowest for a first quarter since 1990. 

This reduction was mainly due to the high insurance penetration in the US, where economic losses reached around $71b, significantly exceeding the Q1 average of $12b since 2000.

The total preliminary global economic losses for the quarter were at least $83b, compared to $54b in Q1 2024. 

Although the US saw record economic losses for the quarter, other regions experienced losses below their long-term averages. 
Aon noted that damage assessments, particularly in Myanmar, are still ongoing.

In 2024, global natural disaster events resulted in $374b in economic losses, 14% above the 21st-century average, marking the ninth consecutive year of losses exceeding $300b.