Insured losses reach $70b in H1 2025: Guy Carpenter

The second quarter saw a levelling off in losses.

Reinsurance specialist Guy Carpenter reported that global insured losses reached nearly $70b in the first half of 2025, largely due to the Los Angeles wildfires, which accounted for $40b or 59% of the total.

Despite this, the firm said reinsurance market conditions remained favourable, with renewal trends from January continuing into mid-year.

Reinsurers maintained strong balance sheets and a growth-oriented outlook, supported by excess property capacity and moderating pricing. 

Casualty underwriting remained disciplined, and reinsurers continued to prioritise long-term client relationships. 

The second quarter saw a leveling off in losses, bringing first-half loss totals in line with the inflation-adjusted five-year average.

Reinsurers are expected to post another year of strong financial results, with projected returns on equity at 15% in 2025, following 16% in 2024. 

Reinsurance capital ended 2024 at a record $607b, with anticipated growth of 5% to 7% this year.

Guy Carpenter noted that reinsurers easily absorbed a 5% to 7% increase in client demand for property catastrophe limit, with supply exceeding demand by over 20%. 

This drove risk-adjusted rate decreases of 5% to 15% for non-loss-impacted programs, whilst loss-impacted programs saw rate increases of 10% to 20%.

The firm also highlighted the role of property contract analysis using AI and data science tools to enhance benchmarking and consistency. 

In addition, the catastrophe bond market remained active, with $17b of limit placed across 57 bonds in the first half of 2025.

In casualty reinsurance, flat to slightly lower ceding commissions were reported after a prolonged period of reductions, whilst excess of loss placements continued to face 10% to 20% rate increases, driven by rising loss severity.