Thai Life’s earnings to climb 6% this year amidst higher premiums

An industry shift toward co-payment health plans could limit its market share growth.

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) is expected to post modest near-term earnings due to a high base in health insurance and a potential rise in medical claims from flu outbreaks.

Maybank Securities forecast a fourth quarter 2025 core profit at $0.09b (THB2.72b), representing flat growth quarter-on-quarter, as higher claims are expected to offset gains from investment income.

Despite these immediate pressures, the company is positioned for solid earnings growth driven by premiums and its Contractual Service Margin (CSM).

TLI is expected to achieve a 6% compound annual growth rate in earnings for fiscal year 2026 to 2027, supported by a 6% to 7% increase in annualised premium equivalent (APE) and a sizeable CSM balance of $2.9b (THB91b) to $3.1b (THB97b).

This CSM balance, which releases at a rate of approximately 12% per year, provides strong earnings visibility for the medium term.

The company also faces an alternative scenario where an industry-wide shift toward health insurance products with co-payments could limit its ability to gain market share.

Long-term headwinds such as foreign exchange volatility and inflation remain potential threats to sustainable operating profits.

($1.00 = THB31.20)