China Pacific Insurance growth faces slowdown risk despite 2026 earnings gains

Morningstar forecasts net income at $8.16b in 2026.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co Ltd (CPIC) is expected to maintain its growth momentum through 2026, supported by strong sales through bank channels and improved agent productivity, according to a Morningstar Equity Analyst Note.

Financial analysts forecast the company’s net income to rise to $8.16b (RMB58.27b) in 2026, up from $7.49b (RMB53.51b) in 2025.

This represents a steady growth outlook following a year where CPIC outperformed its peers with a 19% increase in net profit.

A major factor in this positive outlook is the company's New Business Value (NBV), which is a key measure of future profitability for insurers.

CPIC's NBV grew by 40% in 2025, and analysts expect it to remain a top performer in 2026 due to high contributions from its bancassurance partnerships.

Whilst this growth is expected to normalise starting in 2027 as customer shifts toward bank deposits slow down, the company's strategy of targeting high-value customers is predicted to support annual NBV growth of over 10% through 2030.

Efficiency amongst sales agents is also expected to improve. Despite a broader market downturn, CPIC kept its new premiums from agents flat in 2025 whilst competitors saw declines.

Analysts project a rebound in agent-driven business between 2026 and 2027 as the company completes staff restructuring and more customers adopt "participating" insurance products.

Total revenue for the group is forecasted to reach $61.57b (RMB439.76b) in 2026, a slight 1.1% increase from the previous year, before accelerating to 4.7% growth in 2027.