Dai-ichi Life eyes 40% overseas profit share

Non insurance businesses are expected to contribute 10% by fiscal 2030.

Dai-ichi Life is expected to deliver steady but modest earnings growth in the coming years, as gains from overseas expansion and higher investment income offset pressure on its core domestic business.

Dai-ichi Life is targeting a shift in its earnings mix. Overseas and non-insurance businesses are expected to contribute 40% and 10% of profits, respectively by fiscal 2030, up from 22% and 4% in fiscal 2025. 

The insurer is guiding for adjusted profit growth of just 1.5% in fiscal 2026, following a strong fiscal 2025 in which profit rose 25% to $3.8b (JPY552b) and exceeded company guidance, according to a Morningstar analyst note.

The slower growth outlook reflects expectations that equity sales will remain flat at around $5.5b (JPY800b), limiting a key source of recent earnings upside.

Over the medium term, growth is expected to be supported by overseas operations, particularly in non-life insurance. Earnings from this segment are projected to rise 38% in fiscal 2026, albeit from a low base in markets such as Australia and Vietnam.

Morningstar forecasts that net income will increase gradually from $3.0b (JPY437b) in fiscal 2026 to $3.3b (JPY479b) by fiscal 2028, with earnings per share rising from $0.76 to $0.84 (JPY121.24 to JPY132.67) over the same period.

However, revenue growth is expected to remain uneven. 

Net earned premiums are projected to decline by 32% in fiscal 2026 before returning to annual growth of around 5% thereafter, whilst total revenue is forecast to fall 19.6% in fiscal 2027 before recovering.

($1.00 = JPY158.87)