Noto Peninsula quake could drive total insured losses to $6b – Moody’s RMS

The losses account for property damage, contents, and business interruption across various sectors.

Moody’s RMS estimates Japan’s total insured losses to be between $3b to $6b, a result of the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that struck the Noto Peninsula early this month.

These estimates are based on the Moody’s RMS Japan Earthquake and Tsunami high-definition (HD) Model. The losses account for property damage, contents, and business interruption across various sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial lines, covering both private and mutual (Kyosai) markets.

Losses include damage from strong ground shaking, earthquake-induced fires, tsunami inundation, landsliding, and liquefaction-induced ground deformation.

The estimate also accounts for post-event loss amplification (PLA) and inflationary trends. Not included are losses related to non-modelled exposures such as transport and utility infrastructure, government, or automobile lines.

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The earthquake occurred near Anamizu in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, with a depth of 6.2 miles (10 kilometres). It was a result of shallow reverse faulting on the west coast of Japan, where crustal deformation is accommodated in shallow crustal faults.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported a maximum seismic intensity of seven on their scale in Shika Town Municipality, Ishikawa Prefecture.

Over 3,500 properties were reported as damaged as of January 11, with the number expected to rise as assessments continue. The worst-affected areas are on the Noto Peninsula.

A localised tsunami impacted the west coast of Japan, with the cities of Noto and Suzu being the most affected. Unfortunately, a significant fire also broke out in Wajima, destroying around 200 shops and houses.