Prudential forecasts brighter outlook as Jefferies highlights surplus

Key test is whether Prudential can deliver its $4.4b surplus release target. 

Jefferies says Prudential’s surplus is likely to improve in the coming years, even though the insurer has set a slower pace for dividend growth.

Prudential plans $500m in buybacks in 2026 and $600m in 2027, plus extra returns from the planned IPO of ICICI Prudential Asset Management. 

Dividends will rise 10% a year from 2025 to 2027, less than under its old policy.

According to Jefferies, the key test is whether Prudential can deliver its $4.4b surplus release target. 

It also expects positive trends to return after several weak years, which could surprise the market and support the company’s next strategy.