Prudential falls behind in Hong Kong but dodges broker rule shock: report

Sustainable strategy may pay off when broker policy rules shift in Hong Kong next year.

Prudential Plc is projected to deliver a 12% year-on-year (YoY) increase in new business profit for 2025, CGS International said in a research note.

This rate is consistent with its performance in the first half of the year. 

Whilst this growth is currently slower than that of its primary competitors, it reflects a strategic decision to prioritise sustainable outcomes over short-term market share.

In Hong Kong, Prudential's largest market, the company's growth has lagged behind its peers because it chose not to aggressively pursue sales through broker channels. 

This conservative approach is expected to benefit the company in 2026 as new regulations on broker referral fees and policy illustration rates take effect. 

Because the broker channel only accounted for 14% of Prudential's Hong Kong sales in the first nine months of 2025 (less than half the industry average) the company is less vulnerable to the regulatory shifts that may impact its competitors.

CGS International believe Prudential is well-placed to capture a surge in insurance sales as a large volume of household time deposits in China reach maturity in 2026.

Prudential maintains a long-term goal of achieving a 15% to 20% compound annual growth rate in new business profit between 2022 and 2027. 

To meet this target, the company's new business profit would need to reach between $3.4b and $4.2b by 2027.

Current market forecasts place the company at the lower end of this range, assuming a 14% growth rate for the 2026 to 2027 period.