AIA Group sees growth upgrade after upbeat third-quarter results

The revision reflects stronger sales in China and Malaysia.

Jefferies has raised its growth and margin expectations for AIA Group after the insurer posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and welcomed back former CEO Sir Mark Tucker as chairman.

The brokerage now expects AIA’s annualised new premiums (ANP) to grow by 12% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 8% YoY, and value of new business (VONB) to rise by 17% YoY, compared with an earlier forecast of 13% YoY. 

The revision reflects stronger sales in China and Malaysia, along with continued high margins in Thailand.

AIA’s third-quarter ANP rose 15% YoY at actual exchange rates, accelerating from 9% in the first half. 

Even excluding favourable currency effects, growth came in at 14% YoY. Jefferies said expansion in AIA’s newer Chinese provinces and a recovery in Malaysia helped drive the gains.

The return of Tucker as independent non-executive chairman on October 1 has also lifted investor sentiment. 

Tucker previously led AIA from 2010 to 2017 and later chaired HSBC. 

Jefferies said it expects no major operational changes but anticipates Tucker will strengthen AIA’s relationship with investors.