India set to outpace China, US in premiums by 2030

The outlook for India marks a sharp rebound from 2025, when growth slowed to 3.1%.

The insurance market in India is projected to grow 6.9% through 2030 in terms of premium, pushing the country to be the strongest growing major insurance market, Swiss Re said.

"India is a true bright spot for insurance growth in the mid-term as opportunities emerge, especially in health and motor insurance,” Amitabha Ray, Swiss Re Market head for India, said in a press release.

The country is likely to benefit from “forward-looking regulatory reform, digital innovation and a disciplined but attractive product mix for consumers.”  

“Insurance growth will benefit India, as it acts as a significant financial shock absorber for millions of Indian families and business as they face increased risk from natural catastrophes, increasing healthcare costs and the financial pressures of an ageing population,” Ray added.

The forecast puts India ahead of China, where growth is expected to be around 4%, and the United States, at about 2% over the same period. 

The outlook marks a sharp rebound from 2025, when growth slowed to 3.1% as the market adjusted to new regulations.

Swiss Re said recent reforms by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), alongside broader government policy changes, are improving transparency and reshaping the industry. 

These include a higher foreign direct investment limit in insurance, modernisation of distribution channels, and goods and services tax reforms. The changes are expected to attract new capital, expand access to insurance, and support demand growth.

Life insurance is forecast to grow by 6.8% a year over the next five years. 

India is the second-largest life insurance market amongst emerging economies, with growth expected to be supported by wider distribution, rising demand for retirement products, and credit expansion.

In non-life insurance, near-term growth may be weighed down by regulatory changes and medical inflation, but Swiss Re expects a recovery in the medium term. 

Health insurance is projected to grow by an average of 7.2% a year from 2026 to 2030, whilst motor insurance is expected to expand by 7.5% annually, driven by higher vehicle ownership.

Swiss Re also flagged rising natural catastrophe risks as a key challenge. The reinsurer estimates that assets worth about $26t to $29t are exposed at the national level, with some concentrated in high-risk regions. 

Losses from major disasters in these areas could have a significant impact on economic growth.

Parvinder Singh, head of client underwriting for India at Swiss Re, said insurers will need to balance growth with risk discipline as exposures increase. 

He said prudent underwriting and a focus on sustainable solutions will be critical in narrowing India’s protection gap and supporting long-term stability.