WTW expects busy renewals as aviation rates diverge in Q4

They also forecast single-digit percentage increases in rates.

The aviation insurance market is showing signs of divergence as 2025 draws to a close, with the all-risk segment expected to harden slightly whilst war risk rates continue to fall, according to WTW’s latest Global Marketplace Insights podcast.

Ed Louth, head of Broking for Willis Aviation & Space, said that whilst new capacity continues to enter the war market, the all-risk segment is under greater pressure due to increased loss activity and limited new capacity. 

“We're talking single-digit percentage increases in rates. I think there is an expectation that could possibly harden as we move through the final quarter,” Louth said.

In contrast, war risk rates are softening, with reductions now in double-digit territory for many placements. 

Louth noted that new syndicates have entered the market since October, adding to competitive pressure and expanding available capacity.

Client demand for higher coverage limits is also increasing, with some insurers opting to add an extra $200m to $300m to their programs. 

However, coverage terms remain largely stable, despite some war insurers seeking to tighten exclusion clauses. 

Louth said WTW does not support these revisions and believes the market lacks the leverage to impose them broadly.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key concern for aviation insurers, Louth added, citing ongoing global tensions and active conflicts. 

He emphasised that whilst predicting geopolitical developments is difficult, the market is prepared to respond to potential crises.

WTW expects a busy renewal season in the final quarter as most major airline programs come up for renewal, with capacity dynamics continuing to shape rate movements across the aviation and space segments.