Thai Life Insurance’s product shift lifts premiums but squeezes profitability

The insurer has shifted towards endowment and whole life products.

Thai Life Insurance is expected to see limited near-term momentum, but earnings growth should remain steady over the next few years as premium growth normalises and claims pressure eases, according to Maybank Securities.

Health insurance sales are likely to stay soft into early 2026 due to a high base. Health first-year premiums fell 43% year on year in October 2025 after strong sales last year ahead of the March 2025 copayment rules.

The insurer has shifted towards endowment and whole life products, which grew 42% and 87% year on year and lifted overall first-year premiums by 19%.

However, these products carry lower margins.

As a result, value of new business margin is expected to drop to around 45% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 57% a year earlier.

Value of new business is forecast to fall 15% year on year to about $0.13b (THB4.1b), even as annualised premium equivalent is expected to grow 8%.

Claims may remain elevated in the near term due to a sharp rise in flu cases, but core profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is still projected to increase 2% year on year to around $0.087b (THB2.72b), supported by higher contractual service margin releases and investment income.

Looking ahead, core profit is expected to grow about 10% in 2025 and around 6% a year in 2026 and 2027.

This outlook is supported by continued premium growth, especially in health insurance, a large contractual service margin balance of around $2.91b to $3.10b (THB91b to THB97b), and lower expenses as claims normalise under the copayment framework.

($1.00 = THB31.46)